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This page is about the mechanics of how a Treasure Trail's rewards are determined, and calculations from this to determine drop chances of each reward.

Most clues operate on a series of drop tables with associated chances to access. They start with an initial table which contains all the rewards common to all levels of trails - sweets, meerkats, god pages, etc - and a chance to enter the clue's rare table, containing all of the clue's specific rewards (some of which may be on subtables within the rare table).

The vocabulary used here can be confusing, so here are a number of definitions of terms used on this page:

  • Droptable
    A list of things that can be dropped and their associated chances. Can contain another droptable.
  • (Droptable) slot
    One of the things on the droptable. This may be an item or another droptable.
  • Reward spot
    A place on the clue reward interface which can contain an item. A clue generates at least 2 of these per reward. Each tier of clue has a minimum number of reward spots it will create, and then it will add 0-2 extra spots randomly.
    If the same item is generated for multiple spots, they will combine into one stack (commonly occurs with runes), which may make a clue appear to generate less than it should.
  • 1/x
    The value given in the column is the x value in the 1/x. So a value of 15 in the column means the chance is 1/15, or 1-in-15.
  • x SF
    The value in the column has been rounded to x significant figures.
  • Roll
    Generate a random number in order to choose a droptable slot, or other number needing to be generated randomly. Each number is equally likely to occur, giving rolls a uniform distribution.
  • Any text with a dotted underline has hover text with further explanation.

In order to calculate the per-clue chances, one needs to use a binomial distribution, taking the number of trials n to be the average number of reward spots of that clue tier, and p to be the per-spot chance of getting the items, then calculating the probability of receiving greater than zero of the item. In statistics notation:

\begin{align}
X \sim & Bin(average\ reward\ spots,per-spot\ chance) \\
& \text{Find } P(X > 0) \\
& = 1 - P(X = 0)
\end{align}

Most spreadsheet programs can do this natively. One can verify these values using a Wolfram Alpha query, such as this for barrows dye from a hard clue; in Microsoft Excel or Google Sheets, this is performed using =1-BINOMDIST(0,5,3/25600,true) (see documentation: Excel, Sheets).

General mechanismEdit

Each clue tier, when completed, first decides how many rewards are given. This is the minimum amount (2 for easy, 3 for medium, 4 for hard and elite), with the result of a 0-2 roll added. Since it is equally likely to be 0, 1, or 2, the average is 1, so the average number of rewards the clue will give is the minimum plus one.

Once the number of rewards are chosen, the rewards are generated. This is usually a series of rolls:

  • The first roll is against the common reward table
    • Most of the slots contain the 'common' rewards of the clue (runes, normal staves, normal gear, materials, etc); none of these are clue-specific rewards
    • One slot leads to the global table, which contains god pages, meerkats, sweets, etc
    • One slot leads to the rare table for that clue
  • If the global or rare table is obtained, another roll is performed
    • Depending on the result of the second roll, a third (or more) roll may be performed to determine precise rewards

Global tableEdit

The table that all clues can pull rewards from (which includes god pages, meerkat pouches and scrolls, purple sweets, etc) is positioned in the top level droptable for each clue tier. This means each clue tier has a different chance to access it.

In addition to accessing it normally, if the clue doesn't generate a reward by the time it reaches its last reward spot, it will give an item from this table.

Biscuits have a cap of 200 - once this cap is met, further biscuit rewards are replaced by purple sweets.

EasyEdit

Easy clues generate a minimum of 2 reward spots and a maximum of 4, giving an average of 3 rewards.

MediumEdit

Medium clues generate a minimum of 3 reward spots and a maximum of 5, giving an average of 4 rewards.

The chance of getting each medium-clue-specific item is "around 1/250 per clue". In addition, the 5 animal masks share one droptable slot, as do the male/female variants of elegant clothing (2 per slot) and main-/off-hand briefcases. The pith helmet appears multiple times in the table.

If medium clues behave similarly to the others, one can deduce that there's around 70 slots in the rare table (by counting the rewards) and around 15 in the common table (by using '1/250 per clue' and rounding). However, as the mechanics were not expanded upon in the same way as hards and elites, further analysis will not be done.

HardEdit

Hard clue rewards begin with a droptable with 16 slots. One of these enters the hard-clue-specific droptable containing 96 slots; this table is documented below. Of the top level droptable, some of the remaining slots leads to the all clues table, and the remaining 14 are assigned to general reward items (mahogany planks, rune equipment, etc). (Technically the top level table is much larger than 16, but simplifies to very close to 1/16 to access the rare table.)

Hard clues generate a minimum of 4 reward spots and a maximum of 6, giving an average of 5 rewards.

Notes
  • All of the following items occupy one droptable slot on the rare table directly; a third roll is not performed
    • The items grouped together are grouped for comparison only, they are not grouped in the table itself
Rare table
Item Droptable slots
occupied
Per-reward-spot
(1/x)
Per-clue approx.
(1/x)
Per-clue exact
5 SF
Any god-trimmed rune armour 15 total pieces:
Rune full helm (Guthix) Rune platebody (Guthix) Rune platelegs (Guthix) Rune plateskirt (Guthix) Rune kiteshield (Guthix)
Rune full helm (Saradomin) Rune platebody (Saradomin) Rune platelegs (Saradomin) Rune plateskirt (Saradomin) Rune kiteshield (Saradomin)
Rune full helm (Zamorak) Rune platebody (Zamorak) Rune platelegs (Zamorak) Rune plateskirt (Zamorak) Rune kiteshield (Zamorak)
15 102 21 4.78837%
Any specific part 1 1,536 308 0.32510%
Any trimmed rune armour 10 total pieces:
Rune full helm (t) Rune platebody (t) Rune platelegs (t) Rune plateskirt (t) Rune kiteshield (t)
Rune full helm (g) Rune platebody (g) Rune platelegs (g) Rune plateskirt (g) Rune kiteshield (g)
10 154 31 3.2131%
Any specific part 1 1,536 308 0.32510%
Any heraldic rune armour 25 total pieces:
Rune helm (h1) Rune platebody (h1) Rune platelegs (h1) Rune plateskirt (h1) Rune shield (h1)
Rune helm (h2) Rune platebody (h2) Rune platelegs (h2) Rune plateskirt (h2) Rune shield (h2)
Rune helm (h3) Rune platebody (h3) Rune platelegs (h3) Rune plateskirt (h3) Rune shield (h3)
Rune helm (h4) Rune platebody (h4) Rune platelegs (h4) Rune plateskirt (h4) Rune shield (h4)
Rune helm (h5) Rune platebody (h5) Rune platelegs (h5) Rune plateskirt (h5) Rune shield (h5)
25 61 13 7.8774%
Any specific part 1 1,536 308 0.32510%
Any trimmed dragonhide 4 total pieces:
Blue dragonhide body (t) Blue dragonhide chaps (t) Blue dragonhide body (g) Blue dragonhide chaps (g)
4 384 77 1.2953%
Any specific part 1 1,536 308 0.32510%
Any enchanted part 3 total pieces:
Enchanted hat Enchanted top Enchanted robe
3 512 103 0.97276%
Any specific part 1 1,536 308 0.32510%
Any vestment part 12 total pieces:
Guthix stole Saradomin stole Zamorak stole
Guthix crozier Saradomin crozier Zamorak crozier
Armadyl mitre Bandos mitre Ancient mitre
Armadyl cloak Bandos cloak Ancient cloak
12 128 26 3.846%
Any specific part 1 1,536 308 0.32510%
Any blessed dragonhide 12 total pieces:
Guthix coif Guthix body Guthix chaps Guthix vambraces
Saradomin coif Saradomin body Saradomin chaps Saradomin vambraces
Zamorak coif Zamorak body Zamorak chaps Zamorak vambraces
12 128 26 3.846%
Any specific part 1 1,536 308 0.32510%
Any cavalier 3 total pieces:
Tan cavalier Dark cavalier Black cavalier
3 512 103 0.97276%
Any specific cavalier 1 1,536 308 0.32510%
Pirate's hat Pirate's hat 1 1,536 308 0.32510%
Robin hood hat Robin hood hat 1 1,536 308 0.32510%
Amulet of fury (t) Amulet of fury (t) 1 1,536 308 0.32510%
Amulet of glory (t) Amulet of glory (t) 1 1,536 308 0.32510%
Top hat Top hat 1 1,536 308 0.32510%
Rune cane Rune cane 1 1,536 308 0.32510%

The remaining 6 droptable slots each lead to a different subtable. These are discussed here and then the chances of each item follow in another table.

  1. Animal masks
    The animal mask droptable contains 3 slots, each assigned to an available animal mask (fox, unicorn, black unicorn).
  2. Dragon masks
    The dragon mask droptable contains 3 slots, each assigned to an available dragon mask (green, blue, red).
  3. Sack of effigies
    The sack of effigies droptable has 30 slots; one of these is the sack of effigies, and the remaining 29 slots are unknown.
    • It is likely that the 29 lead to another droptable, with a prismatic star and the explosive barrel contained somewhere within (as those are the only unspecified items and this is the only unspecified space)
  4. Backstab table
    The backstab droptable has 15 slots; one of these is the backstab cape, and the remaining 14 slots are coins (around 5,000).
  5. Dyes
    The dyes table has 10 slots; one of these is shadow dye, and the remaining 9 lead to another droptable. This table has 5 slots; one is barrows dye and the remaining 4 are coins (around 10,000)
  6. Mega-rare
    The 'mega rare' table contains 11 slots.
    • The parts of the gilded rune set take 1 slot each (5 total)
    • 4 slots are used by each potion set (1 slot each for 15 super energy, 15 super restore, 15 antifire, and 5 super 'sets' [attack, strength, defence])
    • 1 slot is a starved ancient effigy (or 2,500 coins if 5 effigies are already owned)
    • The final slot leads to another table. This final table has 12 slots, each occupied by a part of third age armour (mage, ranger, warrior sets).
  • All of the following items are part of one of the above subtables and are not directly on the rare table; a third (and sometimes fourth) roll is performed to obtain them
Subtables
Item Per-reward-spot
(1/x)
Per-clue approx.
(1/x)
Per-clue exact
5 SF
Any animal mask 3 total:
Fox mask White unicorn mask Black unicorn mask
1,536 308 0.32510%
Any specific mask 4,608 922 0.10846%
Any dragon mask 3 total:
Green dragon mask Blue dragon mask Red dragon mask
1,536 308 0.32510%
Any specific mask 4,608 922 0.10846%
Sack of effigies Sack of effigies 46,080 9,216 0.010850%
Coins 10000 Coins[hard 1] 5,000 from backstab table 1,646 330 0.30345%
10,000 from dyes table 2,133 427 0.23416%
Backstab cape Backstab cape 23,040 4,608 0.021700%
Shadow Dye Shadow Dye 15,360 3,072 0.032548%
Barrows Dye Barrows dye 8,533 1,707 0.058580%
Any gilded rune 5 total parts:
Rune full helm (Gilded) Rune platebody (Gilded) Rune platelegs (Gilded) Rune plateskirt (Gilded) Rune kiteshield (Gilded)
3,379 676 0.14788%
Any specific gilded 16,896 3,380 0.029589%
Any potion set 4 total options:
15 Super energy (4), 15 Super restore (4), 15 Antifire (4),
or 5 of each of Super attack (4)Super strength (4)Super defence (4)
4,224 845 0.11832%
Any specific potion set 16,896 3,380 0.029589%
Starved ancient effigy Starved ancient effigy[hard 2] 16,896 3,380 0.029589%
Any third-age part 12 total:
Third-age full helmet Third-age platebody Third-age platelegs Third-age kiteshield
Third-age mage hat Third-age robe top Third-age robe Third-age amulet
Third-age range coif Third-age range top Third-age range legs Third-age vambraces
16,896 3,380 0.029589%
Any specific part 202,752 40,551 0.0024660%
Notes
  1. ^ Note that coins also occur elsewhere, in the common table.
  2. ^ Replaced by 2,500 coins if 5 ancient effigies are already owned

EliteEdit

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Reason: Blood dyes
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Elite clue rewards begin with a droptable with 14 slots. One of these enters the clue-specific droptable containing 52 slots; this table is documented below. Of the top level droptable, some of the remaining slots leads to the all clues table, and the remaining 12 are assigned to general reward items (mahogany planks, royal dragonhide, etc). (Technically the top level table is much larger than 14, but simplifies to very close to 1/14 to access the rare table.)

Elite clues generate a minimum of 4 reward spots and a maximum of 6, giving an average of 5 rewards.

Notes
  • All of the following items occupy one droptable slot on the rare table directly; a third roll is not performed
    • The items grouped together are grouped for comparison only, they are not grouped in the table itself
Rare table
Item Droptable slots
occupied
Per-reward-spot
(1/x)
Per-clue approx.
(1/x)
Per-clue exact
5 SF
Any god-trimmed rune armour 15 total pieces:
Rune full helm (Armadyl) Rune platebody (Armadyl) Rune platelegs (Armadyl) Rune plateskirt (Armadyl) Rune kiteshield (Armadyl)
Rune full helm (Bandos) Rune platebody (Bandos) Rune platelegs (Bandos) Rune plateskirt (Bandos) Rune kiteshield (Bandos)
Rune full helm (Ancient) Rune platebody (Ancient) Rune platelegs (Ancient) Rune plateskirt (Ancient) Rune kiteshield (Ancient)
15 48.5 10 9.8863%
Any specific part 1 728 146 0.68493%
Any dragonhide god armour 12 total pieces:
Armadyl coif Armadyl body Armadyl chaps Armadyl vambraces
Bandos coif Bandos body Bandos chaps Bandos vambraces
Ancient coif Ancient body Ancient chaps Ancient vambraces
12 61 12.5 7.9745%
Any specific part 1 728 146 0.68493%
Any vestment part 6 total pieces:
Armadyl stole Bandos stole Ancient stole
Armadyl crozier Bandos crozier Ancient crozier
6 121 25 4.0535%
Any specific part 1 728 146 0.68493%
Any animal staff 5 total pieces:
Bat staff Cat staff Dragon staff Penguin staff Wolf staff
5 146 30 3.3872%
Any specific staff 1 728 146 0.68493%
Any dragon armour kit 8 total pieces:
Dragon full helm ornament kit (or) Dragon platebody ornament kit (or) Dragon platelegs-skirt ornament kit (or) Dragon sq shield ornament kit (or)
Dragon full helm ornament kit (sp) Dragon platebody ornament kit (sp) Dragon platelegs-skirt ornament kit (sp) Dragon sq shield ornament kit (sp)
8 91 19 5.3751%
Any specific kit 1 728 146 0.68493%
Fury ornament kit Fury ornament kit 1 728 146 0.68493%

The remaining 5 droptable slots each lead to a subtable. These are discussed here and then the chances of each item follow in another table.

  1. Dragon masks
    The dragon mask droptable contains 6 slots, each assigned to an available dragon mask (black, frost, bronze, iron, steel, mithril).
  2. Effigy
    The effigy droptable has 5 slots; one of these is an effigy, and the remaining 4 slots are coins (around 20,000).
  3. Prismatic star
    The star droptable has 20 slots; one of these is a prismatic star, and the remaining 19 slots are coins (around 20,000).
  4. Hard dyes
    The 'hard dyes' table (so named as it contains the two dyes also available in hard clues) has 22 slots; one of these is shadow dye, and the remaining 21 lead to another droptable. This table has 11 slots; one is barrows dye and the remaining 10 are coins (around 10,000)
  5. Third-age dye
    The third-age dye table has 70 slots; one is third-age dye, and the remaining 69 lead to another droptable. This table has 40 slots; 1 is the sack of effigies, and the remaining 39 lead to yet another droptable. This final table has 20 slots; one is the backstab cape and the remaining 19 is a triskelion piece.
  6. Mega-rare
    The 'mega rare' table contains 51 slots.
    • One of these slots leads to a second table containing the 5 slots, each assigned to one of the 5 parts third-age druidic
    • The remaining 50 slots also lead to another table; this one contains 3 slots, each assigned to one of the 3 god bows
  • All of the following items are part of one of the above subtables and are not directly on the rare table; a third (and sometimes fourth) roll is performed to obtain them
Subtables
Item Per-reward-spot
(1/x)
Per-clue approx.
(1/x)
Per-clue exact
5 SF
Any dragon mask 6 total:
Black dragon mask Frost dragon mask Bronze dragon mask
Iron dragon mask Steel dragon mask Mithril dragon mask
728 146 0.68493%
Any specific mask 4,368 874 0.11442%
Coins 10000 Coins[elite 1] 20,000 from effigy table 910 182 0.54824%
20,000 from star table 766 154 0.65077%
10,000 from hard dyes table 839 182 0.54824%
Starved ancient effigy Starved ancient effigy[elite 2] 3,640 728 0.13729%
Prismatic large fallen star Prismatic large fallen star 14,360 2,912 0.034336%
Shadow Dye Shadow Dye 16,016 3,204 0.031215%
Barrows Dye Barrows dye 8,389 1,678 0.059585%
Third-Age Dye Third-age dye 50,960 10,192 0.0098112%
Sack of effigies Sack of effigies 29,542 5,909 0.016924%
Backstab cape Backstab cape 15,150 3,030 0.032999%
Crystal triskelion fragment 1Crystal triskelion fragment 2Crystal triskelion fragment 3 Crystal triskelion fragment[elite 3] 797 160 0.62550%
Any god bow 3 total:
Guthix bow Saradomin bow Zamorak bow
743 149 0.67154%
Any specific bow 2228 446 0.22425%
Any third-age druidic part 5 total:
Third-age druidic wreath Third-age druidic robe top Third-age druidic robe Third-age druidic cloak Third-age druidic staff
37,128 7,426 0.013466%
Any specific part 185,640 37,128 0.0026934%
Notes
  1. ^ Note that coins also occur elsewhere, in the common table.
  2. ^ Replaced by 2,500 coins if 5 ancient effigies are already owned
  3. ^ Whichever part is not owned, in order.

ReferencesEdit

All data sourced from the following (now-expired Twitch VODs):

Highlight videos of the above streams are available on YouTube, however they don't contain all the content of the streams:

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