Actually, there is *one* mister Terr... Terrance Balando, the archaeological expert at the digsite. Not sure if he would be the one to talk to, but he is a "mister Terr...". --Jimfromtx 10:56, January 18, 2010 (UTC)
Calculating special log drop rates Edit
I put up an estimate of 2.2% drop rate of special mahogany logs based on 27 special logs out of 1226 mahogany logs cut at woodcutting level 75 in the Hardwood grove.
There are claims under the Special teak log page that woodcutting levels affect special log drop rates. I don't know that this claim has been supported through experimentation. At level 80+ I see similar drop rates to level 75 -- I have not done a large enough sample size at either level to provide evidence one way or another. Recent drop rates for me indicate the 2.2% estimate might be high -- perhaps I was just a bit lucky. Accurate estimates of rare drop percentages require much larger sample sizes. Recently at level 82 I had 4 special out of 410 logs using the same equipment in the Hardwood grove, which is about 1%.
There are a number of factors that might affect drop rates as well. I wore a Ring of wealth and a Strung rabbit foot for both runs. Is it known whether the ring of wealth affects special log drop rates? The rabbit's foot is supposed to increase Bird's nest drops, but I got none in the 1250 run, and 2 in the 410 run. Again, the curse of "small" sample sizes. My suspicion is that the ring of wealth does not affect special log drops.
I am interested in seeing a calculator, similar to the drop rates calculated on charms for special logs that amalgamates drop rates for many players -- does anyone know how to do this? With the drop rate established, an additional calculation could be done on the expected value per log when you factor in converting logs to planks using special logs. For instance, if the drop rate is 2%, then out of every 100 logs you would have 2 special logs, which gives you 26 mahogany planks and 100-28=72 mahogany logs (if you convert 26 Mahogany logs with the 2 special mahogany logs at the sawmill, losing the 2 special logs). Thus 100 logs (of which 2 are special) are worth 26* 2,251 + 72 * 555 = 98,486 which is an average of 985 per log at current grand exchange prices. These rates look much better than Yew logs which take longer to cut and are sold for 525 per log, albeit without the need for trips to the sawmill.
If you are cutting logs in the Hardwood grove and are banking with Rionasta using Trading sticks, each log takes 10 sticks to bank at a cost of 10 * 8 = 80 per log. Further each entry to the Hardwood grove costs 100 Trading sticks. Assuming you are only carrying trading sticks and are wielding a hatchet, 27 logs can be harvested per trip (without a Familiar) at an additional cost of 30 per log. Thus the total "tax" per log at current grand exchange rates for trading sticks is 110.
Another interesting line of improvement for the page is estimating the time to cut Mahogany logs and bank them, and get an hourly rate of return for Mahogany log woodcutting using special logs for plank making. At level 82 woodcutting at a fairly brisk rate of entering and exiting the grove and banking with Rionasta I harvested and banked 410 logs in an hour. Excluding time for sawmill trips, but subtracting out the banking and entry fees at market rates for Trading sticks, the return on Mahogany log cutting in the Hardwood grove comes to 270,723 at the 1% drop rate or 358,844 at the 2% drop rate. The occasional bird's nest would increase these rates. Higher woodcutting levels would increase the speed of harvesting and hence the hourly return.
Block7head 00:37, March 26, 2010 (UTC)
Out of a sample of 968 logs, I got 950 normal and 18 regular. I was chopping at Ape Atoll and have a woodcutting level of 71, so for me the percent chance of getting a special mahogany log is about 2% —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Wrathanet (talk) on 20:53, 2010 July 2.
Tabulating drop rates Edit
I added fields for user, woodcutting level, whether a rabbit's foot is worn, and nest drops to the table so we can settle the questions of whether these matter for special log drop rates. The drop rates appear to be converging to 2% regardless of what is worn, so I updated the financial considerations section that I originally wrote to eliminate the calculations based on a 1% drop rate which seems rather improbable. I think the origin of the idea that woodcutting level affected drop rates came from the special teak log page, and it was never backed up with statistics. I don't believe a claim was ever made that the rabbit's foot increases drop rates -- I may be the first one who said it is unknown whether it affects drop rates, and now I regret brining it up. To date there is little statistical evidence that any of these factors affect the drop rate. Have we heard of any other item in the game, like monster drops being affected by, say combat level? I think not. I put in nest drop rates, so we can at least quantify the effect of the rabbit's foot on nest drops for mahogany. I've read of claims that nest drop rates are higher for some kinds of wood than others, but haven't ever seen an attempt to tabulate these. This would potentially be a good thing to do on the Nest page. Block7head 16:22, November 14, 2010 (UTC)
Infero Adze ImpactEdit
Another thing to note is whether the user is equipped with a standard hatchet or an inferno adze. There isn't much information, discerning the difference, but here is a bit of insight I've gathered on my own in four trips:
Gear: Dragon Hatchet, Ring of Wealth, Amulet of Glory
Total mahogany logs: 2028
Special mahogany logs: 37(1.82%)
Gear: Inferno Adze, Ring of Wealth, Amulet of Glory
Total mahogany logs: 2047
Special mahogany logs: 19 (0.92%)
Gear: Dragon Hatchet, Strung Rabbit's Foot
Total mahogany logs: 2034
Special mahogany logs: 41 (2.06%)
Gear: Inferno Adze, Strung Rabbit's Foot
Total mahogany logs: 2021
Special mahogany logs: 26 (1.29%)
Note: I defined "total mahogany logs" to mean anything that yields 125xp per chop, which includes regular mahogany logs, special mahogany logs and logs that don't appear in a given player's inventory due to the inferno adze's special effect.
Summary: The inferno adze appears to have a negative effect on the amount of special mahogany logs that will apear hourly in a given player's inventory. Comparing Trips 1 and 2, an inferno adze yields 50.55% of the special mahogany logs a dragon hatchet yields and later yields 62.62% of a standard dragon hatchet, comparing trips 3 and 4.
Jaded Charms 11:09, March 9, 2011 (UTC)
Data collection Edit
The estimated chance of cutting a special mahogany log is close to 2%. Being random it is possible to get several per load, or go many loads without any. It appears unlikely that woodcutting level or wearing a strung rabbit foot increases the chance of obtaining a special log, despite claims to the contrary. Please add to the table to make it more accurate. Only add to the table if you have chopped 1000 or more logs.
|User||Woodcutting Level||Rabbit's Foot?||Normal mahogany log||Special Mahogany log||Nests||Total|
|?||?||?||1,192 (97.79%)||27 (2.21%)||?||1,219 (100%)|
|block7head||87-88||No||2,095 (97.99%)||43 (2.01%)||5 (0.23%)||2,138 (100%)|
|block7head||88-89||Yes||2,711 (98.01%)||55 (1.99%)||5 (0.18%)||2,766 (100%)|
|teh.f4ll3n||77-78||No||1,186 (98.50%)||18 (1.50%)||3 (0.25%)||1,204 (100%)|
|Tollerach||99||Yes||1,531 (97.39%)||41 (2.61%)||?||1572 (100%)|
|block7head||90||Yes||1,372 (98.28%)||24 (1.72%)||?||1,396 (100%)|
|block7head||90-91||No||4,893 (97.86%)||107 (2.14%)||17 (0.34%)||5,000 (100%)|
|Jaded Charms||92||Yes||1,993(97.98%)||41 (2.06%)||?||2,034 (100%)|
|Total||18,964 (97.97%)||393 (2.03%)||30/11,108 (0.27%)||19,357 (100%)|
(from page) --Henneyj 07:49, November 18, 2010 (UTC)