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Contents 1 Untitled 2 Calculations wrong 3 Spinach roll duplicate? 4 New Data: (June 2011 and later)

UntitledEdit

there aint a blue dot there -.- —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 190.232.143.33 (talk) on 2009-08-23 05:37:58 (UTC).

The blue dot was edited in there to help show where it is.--Moneypony 02:15, October 12, 2009 (UTC)

Calculations wrongEdit

the final calculated value is pretty obviously wrong because the estimated profit is higher then the profit u get from the best loot of the chest. I would try and fix it but the calculation is a bit of a mess so if any1 else wants to have a go... --Xtarn ^{• Talk •} 02:25, January 23, 2010 (UTC)

I cleaned it up a bit, using some vardefines, so the final calculation is nicer to look at. I think the only problem with it was whoever added it forgot to deduct the cost of they key so it was out by about 90k. Fixed now, anyway (assuming the probabilities are correct).  Gaz Lloyd _Awesome^Events!_99s 17:42, January 23, 2010 (UTC)

No I didn't forget to to deduct the cost of the key. I left that as an exercise for the reader (I gave the expected value "for the contents of the chest"). However I have opened some dozen chests and got DS, spinich roll and 2k ( no sapphire) twice, so I wonder about these probabilities. Rich Farmbrough, 17:36 26 January 2010 (GMT).

Added back the coins items which had been lost. Also replaced the 238 with 2000 * 11.9, if the % changes this will be more maintainable. Rich Farmbrough, 16:09 27 January 2010 (GMT).

After having opened the chest some 700 times, and not having obtained any sapphires, the 1.7% sapphire drop is, in my opinion, nonexistant. Also, there is a net profit on the chest for sure, as through those 700 times, I've gained a profit of approximately 3m coins. Perlmutter 05:26, July 9, 2010 (UTC)

The percent of getting the different things doesn't add to 100% but 103.9% including only one of plateskirts and platelegs. This should be fixed. --TyiloTalk 16:33, May 3, 2010 (UTC)

Yeah, it would be better if we knew how many times each item was received. The only real way to fix this is to redo the sampling. Suppa chuppa ^{T C CVRC} 01:16, May 11, 2010 (UTC)

Over the next few days, I intend to open a few hundred more chests at least (from the 700 I opened so far this week, but did not document), I'd rather not keep track exactly, but if I made a video of it, would someone be interested in processing that?

In any case, the final profit calculation does not match the probabilities listed. The reason it shows making a loss is that the calc assumes 33.5% dragonstone only. Unfortunately, the probabilities add up to 101.8%. I have 'normalized' the probabilities to add to 100% and updated the final calcs using these numbers. At least it is now close to consistent -- feel free to change if you have better insight into which data was must accurate. Beowulfnjall 15:51, August 19, 2010 (UTC)

I did a small test using only 100 keys. My values were within 1% of the wiki ones except for: coal (-3.6%), iron (+1.2%), ruby&diamond (+4.3%), swordfish (-3.3%), loop half (-1.7%), adamant sq shield (2.3%), and the saphire, which I didn't receive at all. This is, of course, a very small sample size but the large deviation on a few of them is kinda troubling. If anyone wants to see my data, just ask on my talk page. I have no idea whether the tables should be updated or whether my data is an outlier. Oh, the wiki table also gives a total of 102.51%, but that doesn't account for all the differences. Cheers, Penderwyll 17:34, August 23, 2010 (UTC)

Not that it really matters, but the difference between the 101.8% and the 102.5% is double counting rune plateleg and plateskirt (only one counts, depending upon your gender). Yeah, 100 is an extremely small sample but still interesting data... Beowulfnjall 16:23, August 24, 2010 (UTC)

The bottom of the screen is scatterd with the words "error error" and stuff like that. Idk wut that is lol but its proboly a problem... RuneOfSofran^Talk 04:13, March 11, 2011 (UTC)

GEMW on this page desperately needs updating. 69.14.240.82 00:00, March 15, 2011 (UTC)

It should all be automated. What parts seem to be out of date? Suppa chuppa ^{T C CVRC} 03:40, March 15, 2011 (UTC)

Spinach roll duplicate? Edit

I noticed that there's the d-stone, spinach roll, and coins as the first in the table and then there is d-stone, coins, and spinach roll close to the bottom of the table. They have separate percentages...is there something I'm missing that make them especially different or can we delete one?

04:07, March 24, 2011 (UTC)

Could be order of appearance in inventory perhaps Mojohaza1 20:26, June 5, 2011 (UTC)

New Data: (June 2011 and later)Edit

Here's my drops for opening the chest 671 times. I intend to add more logs later, probably within the next week or two. Anyone is welcome to add their own under this heading, but please leave each individual "set" of openings separate. (Each instance of you opening the chest a lot of times, you should add a new listing)

671 openings
178 spinach roll drops 26.5%
77 nothing drops 11.5%
69 rune bar drops 10.3%
68 gem drops 10.1%
65 iron drops 9.7%
59 rune drops 8.8%
57 coal drops 8.5%
40 swordfish drops 5.6%
28 loops 4.2%
20 teeth 3.0%
8 addy sqrare drops 1.2%
2 rune leg drops 0.3%

-Perlmutter 04:19, June 6, 2011 (UTC)

804 openings
208 spinach roll drops 25.9%
109 nothing drops 13.6%
91 rune drops 11.3%
82 gem drops 10.2%
73 rune bar drops 9.1%
63 iron drops 7.8%
54 coal drops 6.7%
50 swordfish drops 6.2%
32 tooth drops 4.0%
30 loop drops 3.7%
9 addy square drops 1.1%
3 rune legs drops 0.4%

Perlmutter 21:05, June 23, 2011 (UTC)

718 openings
211 spinach roll drops 29.4%
82 gem drops 11.4%
77 nothing drops 10.7%
67 rune bar drops 9.3%
66 rune drops 9.2%
64 iron drops 8.9%
53 coal drops 7.4%
40 swordfish drops 5.6%
23 loop drops 3.2%
18 tooth drops 2.5%
12 addy square drops 1.7%
5 rune leg drops 0.7%

These rune leg drops seem to be a bit more in line with what I got before my first report. However, I expect that the actual probability is somewhere near .5%

Perlmutter 00:35, June 26, 2011 (UTC)

I have now completed nearly two times the number of crystal chest openings as was previously used to represent the drop rates (and was obviously inaccurate due to significantly more than 100% drop rate, and some fairly common drops that don't exist). Just recently I opened the chest 1059 times, and upon receiving very similar drop rates to the three I listed above, I present my fully compliled list of drop rates:

As above, drops are listed by main item in drop, so as to simplify reading. No new types of drops were recorded.

Total openings of chest: Percent: 100% (Number of drops: 3254)

Spinach roll: 27.14% (883)

Nothing: 11.92% (388)

Rubies/Diamonds: 10.20% (332)

Runes (magic): 9.93% (323)

Rune Bars: 9.62% (313)

Iron Ore: 8.17% (266)

Coal: 7.84% (255)

Swordfish: 6.30% (205)

Key tooth: 3.60% (117)

Key Loop: 3.56% (116)

Addy Square Shield: 1.26% (41)

Rune Legs: 0.46% (15)

I intend to see if I can change the main page of this topic to reflect my findings, disregarding the old findings some time in the next couple days.

Perlmutter 04:26, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

I tried to add Perlmutter 's info. The percentages are correct, but Im not really sure on the average profit on opening the chest. Im not really good with the code but the numbers seem correct. I am checking this and will update it whenever I finish checking

Johnlang1993 03:56, July 11, 2011 (UTC)

I checked over the profit from opening and it should be right on or at least very close (within 50gp).

Johnlang1993 21:51, July 11, 2011 (UTC)

Does anyone know why the prices of skirt and legs is like 300gp ish off and the difference in price for males and females is very little (I think one or so, I dont remember) i dont understand, the only difference is that one has legs and the other has a skirt. Any help would be great.

Johnlang1993 00:29, July 14, 2011 (UTC)

It's only 1gp difference because the chance of getting the plateleg/skirt drop is .46%. So while getting would mean a 300gp difference, the average player is unlikely to notice a difference. It would only realistically matter to someone who is looting the chest a lot

Anonymous 14:13, October 9, 2011 (UTC)

.